Extrapolations in Traffic vs. Reality

2014-12-032019-03-14 | David Levinson

There seems to be a global patterns among the Anglo-Saxon nations (and perhaps others). If you have more forecasting graphs like this for other places, please send them along via the Comments, and I will update this post.

New Zealand:

Figure 2: Historic New Zealand light vehicle traffic forecasts vs actual growth Source: http://www.transport.govt.nz/ourwork/keystrategiesandplans/strategic-policy-programme/future-demand/

United States:

U.S. DOT highway travel demand estimates continue to overshoot reality (SST By Eric SundquistI) http://www.ssti.us/2014/03/u-s-dot-highway-travel-demand-estimates-continue-to-overshoot-reality/

United Kingdom:

UK National Transport Model consistently overestimates future car use Source: http://road.cc/content/news/137057-cycling-revolution-rolling-backwards’-according-figures-–-car-use-rise-still — UK National Transport Model consistently overestimates future car use
Source: http://road.cc/content/news/137057-cycling-revolution-rolling-backwards’-according-figures-–-car-use-rise-still

Some additional forecasts and/or trends from the comments and elsewhere

…

Australia:

Are Australians driving more (or a lot less?) via Alan Davies

Portugal:

Source: http://www.estradasdeportugal.pt/index.php/pt/informacoes/estudos/871-concessoes-rodoviarias-um-novo-paradigma-operacional (Portuguese) via Marcos Paulo Schlickmann

Washington State:

Washington State forecasts for SR-520. Source: Sightline Institute via https://wordpress.com/post/52773390/8048 — Washington State forecasts for SR-520. Source: Sightline Institute

British Columbia:

Port Mann Bridge, British Columbia http://pricetags.wordpress.com/2013/10/03/sightline-british-columbias-traffic-delusion/ — Port Mann Bridge, British Columbia Source: Sightline Institute

New Zealand:

Traffic volumes across Waitemata Harbour — Traffic volumes across Waitemata Harbour. Source:

Maryland:

Intercounty Connector Source: Image by Claire Jaffe http://greatergreaterwashington.org/post/24959/the-intercounty-connectors-traffic-is-light-so-far-but-the-roads-future-is-still-unclear/ — Intercounty Connector Source: Image by Claire Jaffe

In other fields

Forecasts of Treasury Yields vs. reality.

Delphi Energy Forecast

Jevons Coal Forecast

Evolution of Brent Oil Forecasts: Source: https://twitter.com/JasaykoCFA/status/552289597414473728/photo/1 — Evolution of Brent Oil Forecasts: Source:

Past Economic Outlook projections of euro area GDP

Demographic Changes: Revisions to Japan's Total Fertility Rate Forecasts http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/120514a.htm?utm_content=buffer5cc4d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer — Demographic Changes: Revisions to Japan’s Total Fertility Rate Forecasts

Why have the IEA’s projections of renewables growth been so much lower than the out-turn? https://onclimatechangepolicydotorg.wordpress.com/2013/10/08/why-have-the-ieas-projections-of-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-than-the-out-turn/ — Why have the IEA’s projections of renewables growth been so much lower than the out-turn?

“The energy world is undergoing massive transformation. Installations of renewable energy have skyrocketed around the world, exceeding most predictions from less than a decade ago. ” Source:

State Revenue Forecasts are becoming increasingly wobbly — State Revenue Forecasts are becoming increasingly wobbly. Source.

Aurelija Augulyte (@auaurelija) 6/12/15, 03:44 but hey don't worry about Sweden. #Riksbank has it all under control. pic.twitter.com/NWdZfvUpaG — Aurelija Augulyte (@auaurelija)
6/12/15, 03:44 writes:
but hey don’t worry about Sweden. #Riksbank has it all under control. pic.twitter.com/NWdZfvUpaG

Gusher of Disappointment : Each month forecasters in the Wall Street Journal's survey of economists have predicted that oil prices would climb. Each forecast is the average of responses to that month's survey. — Gusher of Disappointment : Each month forecasters in the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists have predicted that oil prices would climb. Each forecast is the average of responses to that month’s survey.

Falling inflation. Forecasters have expected inflation, as measured by the Consumer-price index, to rise more quickly toward the Fed's 2% larger. Each forecast is the average of responses of that month's survey. — Falling inflation. Forecasters have expected inflation, as measured by the Consumer-price index, to rise more quickly toward the Fed’s 2% larger. Each forecast is the average of responses of that month’s survey.

CoIZEfOXgAQeJZH — Effective fed funds rate and forward rates implied by futures contracts

CoODz8mXEAAox3_ — Projection of total deaths, United Kingdom, 1966-2030, Selected projections

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