Trends

2018 Rail Trends: Falling Behind or on Track to Revitalize the Industry | Trapeze

| David Levinson

Marcelo Bravo writes “2018 Rail Trends: Falling Behind or on Track to Revitalize the Industry” for Trapeze, a transit software company. My quote below. There are other good quotes at the link.

“The U.S. will continue to fall behind the rest of the world in investments in transit and ridership. London is set to open Crossrail (The Elizabeth Line), metros continue to pop up across China, even Australia is making large new investments in rail transit, and all these countries are seeing gains in ridership follow. In contrast, public transit continues to lose riders in most of the U.S. with low gas prices, and even the simplest investments are huge political battles.

The most interesting new trend is the rise of stationless bike-sharing in cities, making bicycling more convenient. Again, this follows from international experience especially China. Whether this works in the North American market is an important question to watch. E-bikes are also gaining popularity and falling in cost. Both challenge public transport for ridership for shorter trips.”

David Levinson, Professor of Transport in the School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney

Telecommuting in the Minneapolis – St. Paul Region | The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport

| David Levinson
daily telecommuting dropped in the past decade (2000/01-2010/11) according to a recent survey in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region, but non-daily telecommuting (once a week or more, once a month or more) rose. In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Time Use Survey reports http://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.nr0.htm: "In 2014, on days they worked, 23 percent of employed persons did some or all of their work at home, and 85 percent did some or all of their work at their workplace, ... In 2003, the first year for which comparable data are available, 19 percent of employed persons did some or all of their work at home, and 87 percent did some or all their work at their workplace on days worked." From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. http://davidlevinson.org/the-end-of-traffic-and-the-future-of-transport/ Figure 3.4 Source: Cao, Jason (2015) Telecommuting and its relationships with travel and residential choices: An exploration of the 2000 and 2010 regional travel surveys in the Twin Cities. (Working paper).
Daily telecommuting dropped in the past decade (2000/01-2010/11) according to a recent survey in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region, but non-daily telecommuting (once a week or more, once a month or more) rose. In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ Time Use Survey reports :

“In 2014, on days they worked, 23 percent of employed persons did some or all of their work at home, and 85 percent did some or all of their work at their workplace, … In 2003, the first year for which comparable data are available, 19 percent of employed persons did some or all of their work at home, and 87 percent did some or all their work at their workplace on days worked.”

From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport.
Figure 3.4 Source: Cao, Jason (2015) Telecommuting and its relationships with travel and residential choices: An exploration of the 2000 and 2010 regional travel surveys in the Twin Cities. (Working paper).

 

Annual Hours of Work | The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport

| David Levinson
Americans now work fewer hours over their career than their working grandparents, and probably their parents (for annual hours. There has been little change over the past 7 decades). They start their careers later, extending the pre-work period into their twenties, taking advantage of productivity gains of parents and ancestors, and borrowing against future productivity. They also retire earlier, post-work retirement starts into their fifties, reaping the rewards of our collective productivity. Vacation time has not changed much in recent decades. From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. http://davidlevinson.org/the-end-of-traffic-and-the-future-of-transport/ Figure 3.3 Source: Huberman & Minns (2007) – The times they are not changin': Days and hours of work in Old and New Worlds, 1870–2000. Explorations in Economic History, 44(4):538–567. via Max Roser Our World in Data http://ourworldindata.org/data/economic-development-work-standard-of-living/working-hours/.
Americans now work fewer hours over their career than their working grandparents, and probably their parents (for annual hours. There has been little change over the past 7 decades). They start their careers later, extending the pre-work period into their twenties, taking advantage of productivity gains of parents and ancestors, and borrowing against future productivity. They also retire earlier, post-work retirement starts into their fifties, reaping the rewards of our collective productivity. Vacation time has not changed much in recent decades.
From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. 
Figure 3.3 Source: Huberman & Minns (2007) – The times they are not changin’: Days and hours of work in Old and New Worlds, 1870–2000. Explorations in Economic History, 44(4):538–567. via Max Roser Our World in Data http://ourworldindata.org/data/economic-development-work-standard-of-living/working-hours/.

Labor Force Participation Rates | The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport

| David Levinson
The workforce in the US has continued its drop as technology-enabled productivity reduces the economic value of older and unskilled workers. While the total size of the workforce is at this writing higher than it was at the depth of the Great Recession, a smaller share of the working age population works today. Fewer people are traveling for work, and fewer discretionary trips are made by both workers nervous about spending money and the unemployed who have little or no money to spend. Starting in 2008 in the US, unemployment increased sharply, and though it has since declined, employment participation rates remain much lower as shown From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. http://davidlevinson.org/the-end-of-traffic-and-the-future-of-transport/ Figure 3.2 Source; US Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics (2015) Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000.
The workforce in the US has continued its drop as technology-enabled productivity reduces the economic value of older and unskilled workers. While the total size of the workforce is at this writing higher than it was at the depth of the Great Recession, a smaller share of the working age population works today. Fewer people are traveling for work, and fewer discretionary trips are made by both workers nervous about spending money and the unemployed who have little or no money to spend. Starting in 2008 in the US, unemployment increased sharply, and though it has since declined, employment participation rates remain much lower as shown
From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. 
Figure 3.2 Source; US Department of Labor – Bureau of Labor Statistics (2015) Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000.

Average Trip Distance by Age and Year of Birth Cohort | The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport

| David Levinson
Persons born in the most recent cohorts are traveling shorter distances than people born earlier at the same point in their life. From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. http://davidlevinson.org/the-end-of-traffic-and-the-future-of-transport/ Figure 1.6 Source: Iacono, Michael and Levinson, David (2015) Travel Behavior Over Time: Cohort Analysis of Travel Behavior. Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota.
Persons born in the most recent cohorts are traveling shorter distances than people born earlier at the same point in their life.
From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. 
Figure 1.6 Source: Iacono, Michael and Levinson, David (2015) Travel Behavior Over Time: Cohort Analysis of Travel Behavior. Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota.

Person Trips per Day by Age and Year of Birth | The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport

| David Levinson
This figure shows how travel by age cohorts are varying in the Twin Cities from household travel survey data. Persons born in the most recent cohorts make fewer trips than persons born in earlier decades at the same age. We are not talking just about Millennials; this is true of Generation X as well. From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. http://davidlevinson.org/the-end-of-traffic-and-the-future-of-transport/ Figure 1.5 Source: Iacono, Michael and Levinson, David (2015) Travel Behavior Over Time: Cohort Analysis of Travel Behavior. Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota.
This figure shows how travel by age cohorts are varying in the Twin Cities from household travel survey data. Persons born in the most recent cohorts make fewer trips than persons born in earlier decades at the same age. We are not talking just about Millennials; this is true of Generation X as well.
From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. 
Figure 1.5 Source: Iacono, Michael and Levinson, David (2015) Travel Behavior Over Time: Cohort Analysis of Travel Behavior. Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota.

Total time spent traveling per capita | The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport

| David Levinson
The American Time Use Survey, starting in 2003 and for every year thereafter, tallies the amount of time Americans spend in various activities, including travel for ten different purposes as shown in Figure 1.4. For a full decade's worth of data, it draws the same sketch. The amount of time spent in travel has declined six minutes — from 74.4 minutes to 68.4 minutes per day. From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. http://davidlevinson.org/the-end-of-traffic-and-the-future-of-transport/ Figure 1.4 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics - American Time Use Survey (various years) http://www.bls.gov/tus/.
The American Time Use Survey, starting in 2003 and for every year thereafter, tallies the amount of time Americans spend in various activities, including travel for ten different purposes as shown in Figure 1.4. For a full decade’s worth of data, it draws the same sketch. The amount of time spent in travel has declined six minutes — from 74.4 minutes to 68.4 minutes per day.
From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. 
Figure 1.4 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics – American Time Use Survey (various years) http://www.bls.gov/tus/.

 

Registered motor vehicles in the US | The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport

| David Levinson
Registered motor vehicles in the US has flattened out, motor vehicles per capita has started to tick downward. From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. http://davidlevinson.org/the-end-of-traffic-and-the-future-of-transport/ Figure 1.3 Source: US Census Bureau. Statistical Abstract of the United States and Historical Statistical Abstract of the United States http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/past_years.html.
Registered motor vehicles in the US has flattened out, motor vehicles per capita has started to tick downward.
From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. 
Figure 1.3 Source: US Census Bureau. Statistical Abstract of the United States and Historical Statistical Abstract of the United States http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/past_years.html.

Roadways per Capita in US |The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport

| David Levinson
Unpaved roads per capita (and all roads) had been steadily falling, and now appear to be flattening out, as depaving roads becomes more common. From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. http://davidlevinson.org/the-end-of-traffic-and-the-future-of-transport/ Figure 1.2 Source: Based on Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2015) National Transportation Statistics Table 1-4: Public Road and Street Mileage in the United States by Type of Surface(a) (Thousands of miles). http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_04.html.
Unpaved roads per capita (and all roads) had been steadily falling, and now appear to be flattening out, as depaving roads becomes more common.
From Levinson and Krizek (2015) The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport. 
Figure 1.2 Source: Based on Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2015) National Transportation Statistics Table 1-4: Public Road and Street Mileage in the United States by Type of Surface(a) (Thousands of miles).