An S-Curve of the Corona Virus

As those of you who have followed my work (like The Transportation Experience with Bill Garrison) know, I am fascinated by S-Curves showing the birth, growth, and maturity of technologies or processes.

One interesting such case is the 2019 Wuhan Corona Virus. Getting data from the Worldometer site (using WHO data), I plotted the data, and then fit logistic functions. I chose as a maximum (to the nearest 1000 cases, nearest 50 deaths) that which gave a best fit for the data to date.

Whether this comes to pass, history will soon tell us, but in any case, it is good news, growth seems to be slowing. The regressions imply that the maximum is really soon (43,000 cases, 1000 deaths). I personally don’t trust the number being that low (it implicitly assumes everything goes right), but at least the end is in sight. So to be clear, this is not my prediction, it is what is implied by a logistic function. CoronaVirusCoronaVirus Deaths