Testable Prediction: Fleet Electrification and Autonomy, each with > 50% share of new vehicles by about 2030.

Another article about my presentation at the Commercial Vehicle Outlook conference: James Jaillet writes in CCJ News “Evolving use of U.S. highways, increasing truck freight efficiency highlight CV Outlook panel on freight infrastructure

… Smarter trucks, smarter roads and efficiency and financial gains from both were central themes of the panel’s discussion.

Levinson said for the first time since the automobile began its 100-year boom in the early 20th century, miles traveled per capita has stagnated, with demographic changes (retiring baby boomers, for instance) and online commerce being two of the key drivers. Traffic congestion, however, may not be impacted, because total miles traveled in the U.S. is still on the rise due to population increases and other long-term trends.

As the world’s relationship with the automobile changes, Levinson said, so does the potential for alternative fuels and electric-powered vehicles.

“Full battery electric vehicles and plug-in vehicles are coming into the market now,” he said. “If you turn this type of data through an s-curve (a model used to predict uptake of new technologies), you come up with around 2030 for when half of car sales will be electric.”

That uptake will be later for trucks, he said, though he still sees electric trucks on the horizon.

Similarly, Levinson said, around 2030 half of cars sold [ED: I think I said miles traveled] will be some form of autonomous. “Technology will drive regulators rather than the regulators driving technology,” he said.

And as automated lane-keeping systems become more prevalent in heavy trucks and passenger cars, narrower lanes and narrower vehicles could follow, Levinson said. “We can rethink how we design cars,” he said. “With lane keeping systems, we can have narrower lanes and shared lanes. Two cars driving in tandem in a lane,” he said, could reduce congestion and improve overall efficiency of U.S. transportation. …

Is Bicycling Contagious? Effects of Bike Share Stations and Activity on System Membership and General Population Cycling

Recent working paper

Nice Ride Membership Map
Nice Ride Membership Map

This paper presents new evidence about the role of bike share systems in travel behavior using a diffusion of innovation framework. We hypothesize that bike share systems have a contagion or spillover effect on (𝐻1) propensity to start using the system and (𝐻2) propensity to bicycle among the general population. We test the first hypothesis by modeling membership growth as a function of both system expansion and the existing membership base. We test the second hypothesis by using bike share activity levels near one’s home in a model of household-level bicycle participation and trip frequency.  Our study shows mixed results. Bike share membership growth appears to be driven, in a small part, by a contagion effect of existing bike share members nearby. However, we did not identify a significant relationship between proximity to bike share and cycling participation or frequency among the general population. The findings hold  implications for marketing, infrastructure investments, and future research about bike share innovation diffusion and spillover effects.

KEYWORDS: Bike Share; Diffusion of Innovation; Travel Behavior