Owen, Andrew and David M. Levinson (2014) Modeling the commute mode share of transit using continuous accessibility to jobs Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice Volume 74, April 2015, Pages 110–122
- Accessibility to jobs by transit is calculated for departures at each minute.•
- Detailed spatial resolution more accurately reflects walking trip components.
- Higher transit mode share is associated with higher average transit accessibility.
- Higher transit mode share is associated with lower variation in transit accessibility.
This paper presents the results of an accessibility-based model of aggregate commute mode share, focusing on the share of transit relative to auto. It demonstrates the use of continuous accessibility – calculated continuously in time, rather than at a single of a few departure times – for the evaluation of transit systems. These accessibility calculations are accomplished using only publicly-available data sources. A binomial logic model is estimated which predicts the likelihood that a commuter will choose transit rather than auto for a commute trip based on aggregate characteristics of the surrounding area. Variables in this model include demographic factors as well as detailed accessibility calculations for both transit and auto. The mode achieves a ρ2 value of 0.597, and analysis of the results suggests that continuous accessibility of transit systems may be a valuable tool for use in modeling and forecasting.
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