Day: 2014-12-31

The Transportationist’s most popular posts of 2014

| David Levinson

The Transportationist 13 Most Popular Posts written in 2014 (note some 2013 posts were still popular):

  1. WE DON’T PAY ENOUGH FOR TRANSPORTATION August
  2. HIGHWAYS’ HIDDEN SUBSIDIES November
  3. ACCESS ACROSS AMERICA: TRANSIT 2014 October
  4. DEATH BY CAR: ARE YOU MORE LIKELY TO DIE FROM A CRASH OR BREATHING ITS TOXIC EMISSIONS? November
  5. DOGFOODING: WHY TRANSIT EMPLOYEES AND MANAGERS SHOULD USE TRANSIT August
  6. IT’S “ONLY” 5 MINUTES, OR GREEN LINE DELAY MONETIZED July
  7. EXTRAPOLATIONS IN TRAFFIC VS. REALITY December
  8. WHEN WILL WE REACH PEAK ROAD? January
  9. IT’S A SMALL MARKET, AFTER ALL. ES GIBT EINEN KLEINEN MARKT, UBER ALLES. December
  10. ALWAYS GREEN TRAFFIC CONTROL April
  11. THE hITE OF ABSURDITY: MINIMUM PARKING IN AN ERA OF DECLINING TRAFFIC January
  12. MOUNT TRANSIT, MOUNT AUTO, MOUNT NEXT February
  13. PEAK SHOPPING AND THE DECLINE OF TRADITIONAL RETAIL February

There is really two types of posts that seemed to be especially popular. One I will call “car subsidized” (1, 2, 4), the other “car over/future of transportation” (6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13). The car is of course neither all bad nor all good, it is a technology and is used and misused all the time, like anything. The car is not quite over yet either, but its trajectory in the US has mostly flatlined. Also some “transit should be better” (3, 5, 6, 10)

This is out of about 300 posts . Of course you should not just be a dedicated follower of fashion and read the top 13, you should read them all.

David King also started posting in the Fall, so I expect to see his posts in this list next year.

The Transportationist’s most popular posts of 2013 may also be of interest. (I did 39 on last year list, so I am 67% more discerning this year). Note, my biggest posts last year were much bigger than my biggest posts in 2013.

Streets.mn also has a list of popular posts; all my posts for streets.mn are cross-listed here, but tend to get views over there.

The next big things for Minnesota in 2015 – Strib

| David Levinson

Jesse Van Berkel writes in the Strib on transport in: The next big things for Minnesota in 2015

More idle cars

With new bike lanes, rapid busways and expanding light-rail lines, commuters in the Twin Cities have more options than ever.

Transit officials predict growing popularity of the Green Line, which connects downtown Minneapolis and St. Paul. In November, on average, 33,222 people rode the light rail line every day — 10,820 more than the Metropolitan Council had anticipated.

The number of trips and miles people travel in their vehicles has dropped steadily over the past decade, said Met Council planning analyst Jonathan Ehrlich. He anticipates that trend will continue as cycling, walking and other modes of transportation become more popular.

But low gas prices could mean slightly more road congestion, said David Levinson, a University of Minnesota professor who studies transportation.

Gas expenditures in 2015 are expected to be the lowest they have been in more than a decade, with the average household spending $550 less than in 2014, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Under $2 a gallon again is pretty significant. That could increase the amount of travel people are willing to do,” Levinson said.

Jessie Van Berkel

I agree on the long term trend with Jonathan, but gas prices have collapsed, and as long as that holds (I will not forecast energy prices, which is a fools errand, except to say the best expectation for next year’s prices is current prices). at the margins people with cars should be willing to use them a bit more, especially for longer trips, and the additional dollars in the pocket should at the margin increase non-work trips like shopping, and thus low energy prices will boost the economy (except for energy producers) which should at the margin increase employment and work trips. So like any good forecaster, I will say the results are contingent on the assumptions.

Peak travel is not over (demographics are more set than anything else, and technological substitutions proceed apace), but mountain ranges are bumpy.