2014-12-03 – David Levinson, Transportist

There seems to be a global patterns among the Anglo-Saxon nations (and perhaps others). If you have more forecasting graphs like this for other places, please send them along via the Comments, and I will update this post.

New Zealand:

United States:

U.S. DOT highway travel demand estimates continue to overshoot reality (SST By Eric SundquistI) http://www.ssti.us/2014/03/u-s-dot-highway-travel-demand-estimates-continue-to-overshoot-reality/

United Kingdom:

UK National Transport Model consistently overestimates future car use Source: http://road.cc/content/news/137057-cycling-revolution-rolling-backwards’-according-figures-–-car-use-rise-still — UK National Transport Model consistently overestimates future car use
Source: http://road.cc/content/news/137057-cycling-revolution-rolling-backwards’-according-figures-–-car-use-rise-still

Some additional forecasts and/or trends from the comments and elsewhere

…

Australia:

Portugal:

Washington State:

British Columbia:

New Zealand:

Traffic volumes across Waitemata Harbour. Source:

Maryland:

Intercounty Connector Source: Image by Claire Jaffe http://greatergreaterwashington.org/post/24959/the-intercounty-connectors-traffic-is-light-so-far-but-the-roads-future-is-still-unclear/ — Intercounty Connector Source: Image by Claire Jaffe

In other fields

Forecasts of Treasury Yields vs. reality.

Evolution of Brent Oil Forecasts: Source: https://twitter.com/JasaykoCFA/status/552289597414473728/photo/1 — Evolution of Brent Oil Forecasts: Source:

Past Economic Outlook projections of euro area GDP

Demographic Changes: Revisions to Japan's Total Fertility Rate Forecasts http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/120514a.htm?utm_content=buffer5cc4d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer — Demographic Changes: Revisions to Japan’s Total Fertility Rate Forecasts

Why have the IEA’s projections of renewables growth been so much lower than the out-turn? https://onclimatechangepolicydotorg.wordpress.com/2013/10/08/why-have-the-ieas-projections-of-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-than-the-out-turn/ — Why have the IEA’s projections of renewables growth been so much lower than the out-turn?

“The energy world is undergoing massive transformation. Installations of renewable energy have skyrocketed around the world, exceeding most predictions from less than a decade ago. ” Source:

State Revenue Forecasts are becoming increasingly wobbly. Source.

Aurelija Augulyte (@auaurelija) 6/12/15, 03:44 but hey don't worry about Sweden. #Riksbank has it all under control. pic.twitter.com/NWdZfvUpaG — Aurelija Augulyte (@auaurelija)
6/12/15, 03:44 writes:
but hey don’t worry about Sweden. #Riksbank has it all under control. pic.twitter.com/NWdZfvUpaG

Gusher of Disappointment : Each month forecasters in the Wall Street Journal's survey of economists have predicted that oil prices would climb. Each forecast is the average of responses to that month's survey. — Gusher of Disappointment : Each month forecasters in the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists have predicted that oil prices would climb. Each forecast is the average of responses to that month’s survey.

Falling inflation. Forecasters have expected inflation, as measured by the Consumer-price index, to rise more quickly toward the Fed's 2% larger. Each forecast is the average of responses of that month's survey. — Falling inflation. Forecasters have expected inflation, as measured by the Consumer-price index, to rise more quickly toward the Fed’s 2% larger. Each forecast is the average of responses of that month’s survey.

CoIZEfOXgAQeJZH — Effective fed funds rate and forward rates implied by futures contracts

Source

CoODz8mXEAAox3_ — Projection of total deaths, United Kingdom, 1966-2030, Selected projections

Source

Recently published

“Roads to nowhere: The accuracy of travel demand forecasts for do-nothing alternatives” by Morten Skou Nicolaisen and Petter Næss in Journal of Transport Policy

doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.10.006
Abstract

Impact appraisals of major transport infrastructure projects rely extensively on the accuracy of forecasts for the expected construction costs and aggregate travel time savings. The latter of these further depend on the accuracy of forecasts for the expected travel demand in both the do-something and do-nothing alternatives, in order to assess the impact of implementing new projects compared to doing nothing or postponing the decision. Previous research on the accuracy of travel demand forecasts has focused exclusively on the do-something alternatives, where inaccuracies have been revealed in the form of large imprecision as well as systematic biases. However, little or no attention has been given to the accuracy of demand forecasts for the do-nothing alternatives, which are equally important for impact appraisals. This paper presents the first ex-post evaluation of demand forecast accuracy for do-nothing alternatives, based on an empirical study of 35 road projects in Denmark and England. The results show a tendency for systematic overestimation of travel demand in the do-nothing alternatives, which is in contrast to the systematic underestimation of travel demand observed in previous studies of do-something alternatives. The main implication for planning practice is that the severity of future congestion problems is systematically overestimated. As a consequence, impact appraisals of road construction as a means of congestion relief appear overly beneficial.