Updated Nov 28, 2012 (Louisville to ACC, New 4 Conf Scenario)

I have long been more interested in NCAA sports conference realignment than with NCAA sports, though when younger I followed hoops and some college football. With the B1G 10 admitting Maryland and Rutgers, this stuff just got personal. I grew up a Maryland fan, and as such, an Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) superioritarian. That is, if the Terps did not win the Conference, it was just because the ACC competition was superior. This of course really only applied in basketball. I taste the bitterness of Maryland with Albert King and Buck Williams facing off against Ralph Sampson, Jr. (not III) of Virginia, or Duke.

Now Maryland has been raptured into the B1G 10 Conference, so as a Minnesotan I might actually see them more often, but it is wrong somehow.

It is not especially wrong from a geographic perspective. The distance from Nebraska to Rutgers is 1292 miles. The driving distance from Boston to Miami is 1505 miles, so the ACC is not more compact than the Big 10, though this move makes the Big 10 less compact, and increases the moment of inertia of the ACC. But the issue is more than miles, it is also time zones. Until the Notre Dame addition, all members of the ACC were in states that were entirely Eastern Time Zone. The Big 10 was split between Eastern and Central time zones. With the late addition of Nebraska, they now contain a state in the Mountain Time Zone. Of course from television product, and start times, having a multiple timezone spanning conference could be profitable, since it staggers the games.

It is wrong from an historical perspective. The Big 10 was the Western Conference (in contrast with the Ivy League’s Eastern Conference). But now it is East (in terms of Rutgers) from several Ivies (Penn, Princeton, Cornell).

As has been widely noted, it is wrong mathematically (the Big 10 has 14 members, the Big 12 has 10 members).

It is wrong from a tradition-preservation perspective. Even if the Maryland-Virginia football game is not as bitter-fought as the Georgia-Georgia Tech game, the Terps against Duke in basketball was notable. While realignment is not new (Where is the University of Chicago now? Just a husk of its former self now that it no longer competes in the Big 10, an unimportant school of little import.), it ought not be encouraged if you want to preserve my youth and allow me to relive it for a few weekends every Fall.

Everyone says televised football is the driver here, and no one cares about televised college basketball, but I don’t think that’s true, not in the northeast, where college football sucks and college basketball does not.

Most importantly it is wrong, or at best short-sighted, from a long-term economic perspective.

Everyone seems to believe that the current model of Cable TV channels paying big bucks to conferences, which depends on the current model of Cable TV surviving, will sustain. What happens with Internet Television, a la carte programming, etc. Will ESPN (as a live programming “channel”) even be around in 15 years? This feels a lot like when the Dodgers and Giants left New York to go to California for Pay Television, among other reasons, in the 1950s (Pay Television wasn’t viable until the late 1970s). Having a “channel” in a “market” makes little sense in a world where anyone can watch anything live (for a fee or for commercials).

Who should be concerned about whether the Big 10 Network will be carried in a particular state or metro area? Anyone will access the programs from anywhere. There needs to be some gatekeeper for funding the coverage, but that can be done without TV networks, and that will change the economics enormously, which makes worrying about these networks at best transient.

There is no stability here. This is what “Gales of Creative Destruction” are all about.

The most stability you could achieve is if the teams in a conference are all roughly equal, so no one is free-riding off the others, and no one is feeling like they are supporting the others. But that assumes that a club of 9, 10, 12, 14, or 16 schools can somehow maintain that level of no cross-subsidies for an extended period. The number of colleges may be roughly fixed (and this of course assumes colleges and universities are stable in a decade or two, and that is doubtful too), the number of permutations and combinations of those colleges is enormous.

Carriage of the Big 10 Television Network (BTN) on the right tier of local cable systems, which is supposedly the source of the push behind the eastward thrust of the Big 10 will soon seem as irrelevant as Betamax vs VHS. Carriage is not going to be a scarce commodity in 10 years, much less the 20 or 40 years conferences should care about (since that is the timeframe when Alumni of my age might think about donating to their alma mater, and tradition breaking does not make one fonder).

Not only is television changing, it is highly likely sports will change. Football is not likely to be with us in its current format in a few decades.

Nothing is permanent, everything changes. The past is gone. Get over it.

I previously fixed the college football playoff system. I still believe this is close to the end state once college football moves from a 4 team to an 8 team playoff (though apparently the Sugar Bowl will get dibs instead of the Orange Bowl for the Semi-Finals). This is why there 6 bowls in the current arrangement, 4 for quarter-finals, 2 for semi-finals, and then 1 for the finals, which will be new.

Below are my schemas for what used to be called Division I conferences (and now FBS) assuming irreversibility (Humpty Dumpty will not be reassembled) and the crack-up of the Big East (the BB schools expel the remaining football schools and build a new elite BB conference) and the WAC. (With all thanks to Matt Peloquin and his website for background.) That is, this is the best that can be done assuming 5 major conferences. If we go to 4, see below, assuming we pass through the 5 conference scenario first. While these are not the conferences I want, I think this maximizes stability going forward, across the dimensions of historical stability, geographic sanity, and approximate similarity in quality of football play.

Comments on the 5 conference scenario. This is roughly where we are, with UCONN Louisville going to the ACC, the Big 12 going to 14 with Cincinnati, Air Force, Boise State, and BYU (perhaps football only), and the Pac 12 adding Hawaii and UNLV, the next best Western state schools. I know the Pac 12 would consider raiding the Big XII (for OK, TX, TT, OSU, or Kansas), but I think that is not worth doing in the end, for all the reasons it failed last time. I also assume CUSA and the Mountain West have a friendly realignment, perhaps going to a 2 game playoff sequence. The MAC gets overly large picking up the rest of the Big East football teams and the academies.

Comments on the 4 conference scenario. This is roughly 16×4+2 that would make nice symmetry. Here the ACC cracks up. (The alternative is the Big XII cracks, but given current money flows, it looks like the ACC will break first). I just think there are at least 66 schools in the system that will need to be in the majors for a playoff system. One could promote some of the other MINORS schools (maybe from the ACC or Big East), but none of them are strong enough to force their way in for football (the best are Syracuse, Pitt, or Connecticut, but they are weaker than the weakest team in the MAJORS except for Vanderbilt, Baylor, or Northwestern, which all already in). The Big 10 goes for east coast markets with TV carriage and for elite land grant schools (NC, UVA, GT). The Big 12 goes for second schools in SEC states, + Notre Dame. The Pac-16 bites the bullet and admits Boise State and BYU. The SEC picks up the rest of the ACC football schools (second tier state land grants, NC State and Virginia Tech) in states they don’t already have schools.

The champions of the 4 conferences, plus 4 top-ranked wild cards will be in the playoffs. Big 10 will align with Fox, Big 12 with NBC, SEC with CBS, and PAC 12 with ABC/ESPN for a few years before football is abolished and the networks disemboweled.

5 Conference Scenario

MAJORS
ACC			BIG 10			BIG 12			PAC 12			SEC
Clemson	ACC		Illinois	Big Ten		Baylor	Big XII		Arizona	PAC 10		Alabama	SEC
Duke	ACC		Indiana	Big Ten		Iowa State	Big XII		Arizona State	PAC 10		Arkansas	SEC
Florida State	ACC		Iowa	Big Ten		Kansas	Big XII		California	PAC 10		Auburn	SEC
Georgia Tech	ACC		Michigan	Big Ten		Kansas State	Big XII		Oregon	PAC 10		Florida	SEC
NC State	ACC		Michigan State	Big Ten		Oklahoma	Big XII		Oregon St	PAC 10		Georgia	SEC
North Carolina	ACC		Minnesota	Big Ten		Oklahoma St.	Big XII		Stanford	PAC 10		Kentucky	SEC
Virginia	ACC		Northwestern	Big Ten		Texas Tech	Big XII		UCLA	PAC 10		LSU	SEC
Wake Forest	ACC		Ohio State	Big Ten		Texas	Big XII		USC	PAC 10		Mississippi	SEC
Virginia Tech	ACC		Penn State	Big Ten		West Virginia	Big East		Washington	PAC 10		Mississippi St.	SEC
Miami	ACC		Purdue	Big Ten		TCU	MWC		Washington St	PAC 10		South Carolina	SEC
Boston College	ACC		Wisconsin	Big Ten		Cincinnati	Big East		Utah	MWC		Tennessee	SEC
Syracuse	Big East		Nebraska	Big XII		Air Force	MWC		Colorado	Big XII		Vanderbilt	SEC
Pittsburgh	Big East		Maryland	ACC		Boise State	Big East		Hawaii	WAC		Texas A&M	Big XII
Notre Dame	Ind		Rutgers	Big East		BYU	MWC		UNLV	MWC		Missouri	Big XII
Louisville	Big East
MINORS
BIG EAST FOOTBALL			MAC			CONFERENCE USA			MOUNTAIN WEST			Sunbelt
No more			Akron	MAC		Central Florida	Big East		Air Force	MWC		Georgia State	Sunbelt
			Ball State	MAC		Charlotte			Colorado St	MWC		Florida Atlantic	Sunbelt
			Bowling Green	MAC		East Carolina	CUSA		Fresno State	WAC		Arkansas State	Sunbelt
			Buffalo	MAC		Louisiana Tech	WAC		Nevada	WAC		Louisiana Lafayette	Sunbelt
			Central Michigan	MAC		Marshall	CUSA		New Mexico	MWC		Troy	Sunbelt
			Eastern Michigan	MAC		Memphis	Big East		San Diego State	Big East		Middle Tennessee State	Sunbelt
			Kent State	MAC		Old Dominion			San Jose State	MWC		Louisian Monroe	Sunbelt
			Miami (Ohio)	MAC		South Florida	Big East		Utah State	WAC		Western Kentucky	Sunbelt
			Northern Illinois	MAC		Southern Miss	CUSA		Wyoming	MWC		South Alabama	Sunbelt
			Ohio University	MAC		Tulane	CUSA					Texas State	Sunbelt
			Toledo	MAC		UAB	CUSA		UTEP	CUSA		Texas Arlington	Sunbelt
			Western Michigan	MAC		Florida International			UTSA	CUSA		New Mexico St.	WAC
			Temple	Big East					North Texas	CUSA		Idaho	WAC
			U Mass	MAC					SMU	Big East
			Navy	Big East					Houston	Big East
			Army	Ind./Patriot					Rice	CUSA
UCONN	Big East		Villanova	Big East					Tulsa	CUSA

4 Conference Scenario: Big XII Survives, ACC Destroyed

MAJORS
BIG 10			BIG XII			PAC 12			SEC
Illinois	Big Ten		Baylor	Big XII		Arizona	PAC 10		Alabama	SEC
Indiana	Big Ten		Iowa State	Big XII		Arizona State	PAC 10		Arkansas	SEC
Iowa	Big Ten		Kansas	Big XII		California	PAC 10		Auburn	SEC
Michigan	Big Ten		Kansas State	Big XII		Oregon	PAC 10		Florida	SEC
Michigan State	Big Ten		Oklahoma	Big XII		Oregon St	PAC 10		Georgia	SEC
Minnesota	Big Ten		Oklahoma St.	Big XII		Stanford	PAC 10		Kentucky	SEC
Northwestern	Big Ten		Texas Tech	Big XII		UCLA	PAC 10		LSU	SEC
Ohio State	Big Ten		Texas	Big XII		USC	PAC 10		Mississippi	SEC
Penn State	Big Ten		West Virginia	Big East		Washington	PAC 10		Mississippi St.	SEC
Purdue	Big Ten		TCU	MWC		Washington St	PAC 10		South Carolina	SEC
Wisconsin	Big Ten		Cincinnati	Big East		Utah	MWC		Tennessee	SEC
Nebraska	Big XII		Louisville	Big East		Colorado	Big XII		Vanderbilt	SEC
Maryland	ACC		Florida State	ACC		Hawaii	WAC		Texas A&M	Big XII
Rutgers	Big East		Clemson	ACC		UNLV	MWC		Missouri	Big XII
Georgia Tech	ACC		Miami	ACC		Boise State	Big East		NC State	ACC
North Carolina	ACC		Boston College	ACC		BYU	MWC		Virginia Tech	ACC
Virginia	ACC		Notre Dame	Ind
MINORS
“Big Atlantic”			MAC			CONFERENCE USA			MOUNTAIN WEST
Duke	ACC		Akron	MAC		Central Florida	Big East		Air Force	MWC
Wake Forest	ACC		Ball State	MAC		Charlotte			Colorado St	MWC
Syracuse	Big East		Bowling Green	MAC					Fresno State	WAC
Pittsburgh	Big East		Buffalo	MAC		Louisiana Tech	WAC		Nevada	WAC
Connecticut	Big East		Central Michigan	MAC		Marshall	CUSA		New Mexico	MWC
Temple	Big East		Eastern Michigan	MAC		Memphis	Big East		San Diego State	Big East
U Mass	MAC		Kent State	MAC		Old Dominion			San Jose State	MWC
Navy	Big East		Miami (Ohio)	MAC		South Florida	Big East		Utah State	WAC
Army	Ind./Patriot		Northern Illinois	MAC		Southern Miss	CUSA		Wyoming	MWC
Villanova	Big East		Ohio University	MAC		Tulane	CUSA
East Carolina	CUSA		Toledo	MAC		UAB	CUSA
Tulane	CUSA		Western Michigan	MAC		Florida International			NEW SOUTHWEST DIVISION
									UTEP	CUSA
						SUNBELT			UTSA	CUSA
						Georgia State	Sunbelt		North Texas	CUSA
						Florida Atlantic	Sunbelt		SMU	Big East
						Arkansas State	Sunbelt		Houston	Big East
						Louisiana Lafayette	Sunbelt		Rice	CUSA
						Troy	Sunbelt		Tulsa	CUSA
						Middle Tennessee State	Sunbelt
						Louisian Monroe	Sunbelt
						Western Kentucky	Sunbelt
						South Alabama	Sunbelt
						Texas State	Sunbelt
						Texas Arlington	Sunbelt
						New Mexico St.	WAC
						Idaho	WAC

4 Conference Scenario ACC Survives, Big 12 demolished

MAJORS
BIG 10			ACC			PAC 12			SEC
Illinois	Big Ten		Duke	ACC		Arizona	PAC 10		Alabama	SEC
Indiana	Big Ten		Wake Forest	ACC		Arizona State	PAC 10		Arkansas	SEC
Iowa	Big Ten		Syracuse	Big East		California	PAC 10		Auburn	SEC
Michigan	Big Ten		Pittsburgh	Big East		Oregon	PAC 10		Florida	SEC
Michigan State	Big Ten		Connecticut	Big East		Oregon St	PAC 10		Georgia	SEC
Minnesota	Big Ten		Georgia Tech	ACC		Stanford	PAC 10		Kentucky	SEC
Northwestern	Big Ten		North Carolina	ACC		UCLA	PAC 10		LSU	SEC
Ohio State	Big Ten		Virginia	ACC		USC	PAC 10		Mississippi	SEC
Penn State	Big Ten		NC State	ACC		Washington	PAC 10		Mississippi St.	SEC
Purdue	Big Ten		Virginia Tech	ACC		Washington St	PAC 10		South Carolina	SEC
Wisconsin	Big Ten		Cincinnati	Big East		Utah	MWC		Tennessee	SEC
Nebraska	Big XII		Louisville	Big East		Colorado	Big XII		Vanderbilt	SEC
Maryland	ACC		Florida State	ACC		Hawaii	WAC		Texas A&M	Big XII
Rutgers	Big East		Clemson	ACC		UNLV	MWC		Missouri	Big XII
Kansas	Big XII		Miami	ACC		Oklahoma	Big XII		Oklahoma State	Big XII
Iowa State	Big XII		Boston College	ACC		Texas	Big XII		Kansas State	Big XII
			Notre Dame	Ind					West Virginia	Big XII
MINORS
Little East			MAC			CONFERENCE USA			MOUNTAIN WEST
			Akron	MAC					Air Force	MWC
Memphis	Big East		Ball State	MAC		Charlotte			Colorado St	MWC
Central Florida	Big East		Bowling Green	MAC		Old Dominion			Fresno State	WAC
South Florida	Big East		Buffalo	MAC		Louisiana Tech	WAC		Nevada	WAC
East Carolina	CUSA		Central Michigan	MAC		Marshall	CUSA		New Mexico	MWC
Temple	Big East		Eastern Michigan	MAC		Florida International			San Diego State	Big East
U Mass	MAC		Kent State	MAC		UAB			San Jose State	MWC
Navy	Big East		Miami (Ohio)	MAC		Southern Miss			Utah State	WAC
Army	Ind./Patriot		Northern Illinois	MAC					Wyoming	MWC
Villanova	Big East		Ohio University	MAC					BYU	MWC
Tulane	CUSA		Toledo	MAC					Boise State	Big East
			Western Michigan	MAC
									SOUTHWEST
						SUNBELT			UTSA	CUSA
						Georgia State	Sunbelt		North Texas	CUSA
						Florida Atlantic	Sunbelt		SMU	Big East
						Arkansas State	Sunbelt		Houston	Big East
						Louisiana Lafayette	Sunbelt		Rice	CUSA
						Troy	Sunbelt		Tulsa	CUSA
						Middle Tennessee State	Sunbelt		Baylor	Big XII
						Louisian Monroe	Sunbelt		Texas Tech	Big XII
						Western Kentucky	Sunbelt		TCU	MWC
						South Alabama	Sunbelt		UTEP	CUSA
						Texas State	Sunbelt
						Texas Arlington	Sunbelt
						New Mexico St.	WAC
						Idaho	WAC