Traffic Forecasting – Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results

| David Levinson
Traffic Forecasting - Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results :
Traffic Forecasting – Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results :

Mike on Traffic finds Peak Travel and supports Fix-It-First: Traffic Forecasting – Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results :

“Based on national and local trends, my conclusion is that it is very reasonable to think traffic growth has plateaued. The punchline for traffic impact studies: the “no-build” traffic forecasts should be the same as the existing traffic volumes. We don’t need to do opening day forecasts and 20 year forecasts because they can reasonably be expected to be similar.
And given our huge budget shortfalls, this should also mean a policy of fixing the infrastructure we have. NOT expanding our transportation system to add capacity.”

2 thoughts on “Traffic Forecasting – Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results”

  1. What is your academic opinion on this?
    P.S. This blog only allows UMN IDs to comment?

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  2. I believe the evidence is in favor of Peak Travel, certainly on a per-capita basis and possibly a societal basis, barring a major technology change (namely autonomous vehicles along with low energy prices). I am also in favor of fix-it-first.
    Note, non-UMN IDs are allowed to register.

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