How good a modeler are you?
The Technion Prediction Tournament seeks to find out …
“Motivation and the basic idea
Classical behavioral decision research focuses on counter-examples to rational decision theory (like the Allais’ paradox), and simple models of sufficient conditions to these counter-examples (like original prospect theory, Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). We believe that this focus was highly effective in establishing the importance of behavioral decision research; yet, the future of our discipline depends on our ability to advance beyond counter-examples (see Budescu et al., 1998.
The current set of competitions tries to take one step beyond counter-examples by focusing on well defined spaces of choice problems. The set includes three independent competitions that will focus on three distinct choice tasks:
One shot decisions under risk (like the situations studied by Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) – Condition Description
One shot decisions from experience (like the situations studied by Hertwig et al., 2004) – Condition E-sampling
Repeated decisions from experience (like the situations studied by Barron and Erev, 2003) – Condition E-repeated
We ran one set of experimental studies (the estimation set) and will soon run a second set (the competition set). Both sets focus on choice between two alternatives, a safe choice and a risky choice:
Safe: Medium with certainty;
Risk: Low with probability p; High otherwise”